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Who will win PARI Universe 2026? Every team's chances

October 22 – November 1, 2026· Updated October 9, 2026 · Also in: Español, Português

Chances by team

TeamWins the tournamentReaches the finalTop 4Playoffs
PARIVISION62%80%92%100%
Team Yandex24%56%82%99%
Team Spirit8%25%59%94%
1w Team2%12%43%89%
Team Liquid2%10%38%87%
BetBoom Team2%10%37%87%
Astra Invicta1%5%28%83%
GamerLegion<1%1%9%61%
OG<1%1%9%60%
LEGION<1%<1%3%40%

20,000 simulated tournaments. How we calculate this: for every pair of teams our pre-match model estimates the chance to win a game with the current rosters; then the whole tournament is played out thousands of times in its real format. Results already played are fixed, so the forecast updates during the event.

PARI Universe brings ten teams together online from October 22 to November 1, 2026, with a prize pool of $250,000. The event is organised by FISSURE. Two groups of five play a best-of-three round robin; the top four of each group go on to double-elimination playoffs (October 28 – November 1), with a best-of-five grand final.

Before the start, our models make PARIVISION the clear favourite: they win the tournament in roughly three simulations out of five. The roster has stayed the same all season, and it won all six of its maps at BLAST SLAM VIII just before this event. The main challenger is Team Yandex, at about one in four, followed by Team Spirit. Everyone else is a long shot to lift the trophy, but the race for the eight playoff spots is open: OG, GamerLegion and the qualifier winner LEGION each have a real chance to go out in the groups.

How to read these numbers

The table shows how often each team finished first in thousands of simulated tournaments. Even a clear favourite is far from certain to win the whole event: it has to win several series in a row against strong teams, and every best-of-three carries a real chance of an upset. A team at 10% is a genuine contender.

The head-to-head table is more intuitive: it is simply the chance that one team beats another in a best-of-three, based on recent results, form and the players on each roster.

Updated during the event

After every day of play the finished series are added and the rest of the tournament is simulated again, so the chances move with the results. Come back after each match day.

Want to follow the games live? Every match is on the Swingmeter home page with the win chance minute by minute. And if you wonder how much the picks matter, read does the draft decide Dota 2 matches.

Head to head: chance to win a best-of-three

Row team against column team.

PARIVISIONTeam YandexTeam Spirit1w TeamTeam LiquidBetBoom TeamAstra InvictaGamerLegionOGLEGION
PARIVISION—66%74%82%83%86%88%93%93%93%
Team Yandex34%—62%77%74%74%82%90%91%92%
Team Spirit26%38%—60%55%55%69%80%84%88%
1w Team18%23%40%—54%56%59%74%74%82%
Team Liquid17%26%45%46%—51%55%66%66%80%
BetBoom Team14%26%45%44%49%—57%74%62%78%
Astra Invicta12%18%31%41%45%43%—68%70%78%
GamerLegion7%10%20%26%34%26%32%—52%67%
OG7%9%16%26%34%38%30%48%—60%
LEGION7%8%12%18%20%22%22%33%40%—

Methodology · Official tournament page· Analytics for information and entertainment only. Not betting advice.